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Base rate: a denominator cell, not an interview

One person on TV is a numerator. Millions of slips that week are the denominator. Overlaps availability-heuristic-jackpot; this page names forgetting the rate. Ads sell the numerator.

Denominator

C(45,6) or tickets sold.

Split from availability

Vividness versus rate-forgetting. Same news family.

Responsibility

Entertainment. No loans after an interview.

We do not sell

No neglect calendar.

Related

FAQ

Does an interview prove it is easy?
A numerator does not replace a denominator.
Numbers?
No.
Prediction?
No.
A stats class?
Plain-language notes.

For entertainment and arithmetic. Combinatorics, bias, and expected value are not a winning tip or investment advice. Draws are random.

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