Two fair heads are 1/4. If lottery draws are independent, last first prize does not weight the next. Pair with coin-flip-fairness, coin-flip-vs-dice-randomness, and gamblers-fallacy-lottery. Dependent draws (a bent machine) are another model. This essay does not accuse.
Only under independence is P(A and B)=P(A)P(B).
A fairness assumption. Audits are documents.
Other URL.
No tips for breaking independence.
| Independent | Last draw does not push next |
|---|---|
| Hot-hand | Other URL |
| Coin | Same family |
| Tip | None |
Arithmetic, not a winning tip.
For entertainment and arithmetic. Combinatorics, bias, and expected value are not a winning tip or investment advice. Draws are random.