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Lottery EV: an arithmetic box, not a winning method

Expected value is Σ(prize_i × p_i) − ticket price. Korean Lotto 6/45 first-prize space is C(45,6)=8,145,060. Advertised jackpots are often pre-tax and pre-split; multiple winners carve the pot. “The headline looks large” and “this ticket’s EV is positive” are different sentences. lottery-odds is combinatorics; powerball-vs-lotto6 compares spaces. This landing writes why the sign is usually negative. Hot numbers and saju slips do not change EV.

The formula

EV = (jackpot contribution + lower tiers) − price. Jackpot contribution is roughly (estimated pot × p_first) / expected winners. A bad estimate makes a bad EV.

Rollovers and tax

A rollover grows the numerator. Tax and annuity versus cash cut what you keep. Do not read a press line as take-home.

Split from the odds page

8,145,060 is a count of combinations. EV needs a prize table too. Different URL.

Responsibility

Entertainment budget. No loans, no all-in. A briefly positive EV still has extreme variance. Addiction is counselling. We do not sell a system.

EV arithmetic (not a tip)

EVΣ(prize×p) − price
6/45 firstC(45,6)=8,145,060
Ad jackpotOften pre-tax / pre-split
Odds pageOther URL

The house is usually favoured. Not a buy signal.

Related

FAQ

Should I buy when the jackpot is huge?
This page is not a buy signal. Advertised jackpot ≠ your EV.
Same as lottery-odds?
Counting combinations versus expected value — different essays.
Do saju numbers raise EV?
No. The draw is random.
A lock?
No. Arithmetic, not a method.

For entertainment and arithmetic. Expected value and odds are not a winning tip or investment advice. Draws are random.

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